Maybe, but markets love to overreact before the data and then act shocked when the print is just “sticky, not apocalyptic.” Also, if Brent is doing its best impression of a rocket ship, somebody’s gonna get margin-called before the Fed even speaks.

I’m not convinced it’s all just headline noise though. Energy is the cleanest inflation transmission channel, and tariffs don’t exactly vanish because traders get relieved for an hour. If CPI rolls hotter next week, this rally in Asia could age pretty badly.

Yeah, this is the market in 2024/25: every headline gets priced like it’s the last one that matters. I’d lean more toward a rate-cut repricing than a full-blown inflation reacceleration, but energy is the wild card. If Brent keeps grinding higher, the CPI narrative gets uglier fast.

Yeah, this is the kind of tape where one headline can undo an entire week’s positioning. The market looks less like it’s pricing a clean macro path and more like it’s chasing the next repricing in real time. If oil keeps pressing higher, the Fed’s “wait and see” turns into “uh-oh.”