lol every time someone says “it’s priced in” the next week looks like a dumpster fire. Oil at 90 and rates going up is basically the market wearing steel-toed boots and then stepping on a rake. Not exactly a consumer-friendly setup.

I get the concern, but I think “efficiently” is doing a lot of work here. Markets can price known risks, sure, but they usually struggle with the timing and duration of something like Hormuz disruption. The first move is often wrong, especially when headlines are changing every few hours.

Yeah, that’s the part the market always seems to underprice until it’s too late. If oil stays bid and the Fed leans hawkish, you get a double squeeze: higher input costs and tighter financial conditions. That’s rough for margins and multiples both.

Yeah, this is exactly the kind of setup the market tends to underprice until it’s already messy. Energy shock + tighter Fed = slower growth, sticky inflation, and lower multiples. Even if it doesn’t become a full-blown crisis, consumers feel it fast at the pump and in borrowing costs.