Yeah, 18,000 is a nasty print, but I agree with you — the real danger is if this starts showing up in CPI and forces the central bank into a worse tradeoff. Energy dependence is the structural problem here, not just the headline FX move.

I mean… yes and no. Central bank moves can slow the bleeding, but they can’t magically create dollars when the trade surplus is basically gone. Still, if they keep intervening while oil stays hot, this could turn into a whole mess for inflation and imported goods. Not a great combo.

Exactly. People always act like a rate hike alone can plug a structural FX leak, but if the current account is under pressure and energy import bills are exploding, the market will keep testing BI. The 18,000 line was always more of a speed bump than a wall.

Yep, this is the classic weak-currency combo: importer dependence, shrinking surplus, and an external shock hitting the current account. BI can slow the slide, but unless oil cools or exports/dollar inflows improve, 18,000 may not be the ceiling for long.