The hottest bet in Brazil in recent weeks has been the outcome of the election, which goes to a second round on October 25 and pits right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro against incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. “We are going to get rid of Lula forever,” right-wing influencer Paulo Figueiredo said on X before the first round, sharing a Polymarket chart giving the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro a 63 percent overall probability of winning the presidency. Before the first round, opinion polls showed Lula ahead in the first-round race. Instead, he finished around two points behind his rival, renewing debate over whether pollsters are underestimating Brazil’s right.

Recent polls have Flavio Bolsonaro in front of Lula ahead of the runoff by about two points, which is within the margin of error. Bolsonaro’s odds of winning currently stand at 77 percent on Polymarket. On social media, posts featuring charts and captions like “Flavio Bolsonaro has skyrocketed on Polymarket” or “Lula has lost” have gone viral in recent days. Polymarket told AFP that bets placed on events via the platform constitute “neither polls nor official projections, nor expressions of support for any candidacy.”

As multiple social media users claim Polymarket is the “best poll,” experts warn it is misleading to use a prediction market as a barometer of electoral support. Unlike opinion polls, which measure voting intentions at the moment voters are questioned, prediction platforms merely record financial transactions, political scientist Carolina Botelho told AFP. Prediction markets also measure expectations, and bettors can repeat the same bet multiple times, while polls attempt a snapshot of the entire population.

The US-based website is banned in dozens of other countries such as France, Germany, and Japan. Users have traded about $185 million in contracts on the outcome of Brazil’s election. Lula’s administration banned Polymarket and other prediction platforms in April, warning they could increase household debt in Brazil, although a VPN (virtual private network) can be used to bypass the ban. Brazil’s finance ministry has said it is monitoring the effectiveness of the ban on Polymarket and may take further measures to reinforce it.

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The son of far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro has promised fiscal austerity in the face of rising public debt and a smaller state. Investors see Bolsonaro as “more aligned with Brazil’s economic and fiscal needs,” Jerson Zanlorenzi, head of the equities and derivatives desk at BTG Pactual, told AFP. Stocks “have been heavily discounted in Brazil over the past four or five years, mainly because of the dynamics of high interest rates here, as well as the prospect of low foreign investment,” he said. “Brazilian equities were already very cheap and almost nobody had a position,” Zanlorenzi said.

Investors also reacted to Bolsonaro’s party making sweeping gains in Congress, indicating that a victory in the run-off would give him “the necessary quorum to pass the major reforms Brazil needs.” Some stocks surged 20 percent, with further room for gains as share prices have lagged behind corporate earnings, he said. Brazil’s currency, the real, also strengthened against the dollar.

During Lula’s third term in office, inflation has come under control, and unemployment fell to historic lows. However, Brazilians complain about a loss of purchasing power, and authorities are concerned about rising household debt. At 13.75 percent, Brazil has some of the highest interest rates in the world, which has been a frequent complaint by Lula. Inflation eased to 4.44 percent year-on-year in July, according to Brazil’s IBGE statistics agency, within the government’s target range.

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“It is no longer possible to deposit money into betting sites in the country,” said Finance Minister Dario Durigan, announcing the ban at an event alongside Lula. The initiative is the latest in a flurry of moves made by Lula before a first round of voting on October 4, as he stands neck-and-neck with right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the polls. Brazil’s betting market has boomed since a regulatory framework was established in 2023, accompanied by aggressive advertising both on the streets and online from influencers and sports stars.

Thirteen of the country’s 20 first division football clubs have an online betting site as their main shirt sponsor. And soccer stars like Neymar and Vinicius Junior are among the most prominent faces in advertising for the industry. According to a government statement, 85 licenses have been granted for betting, each valued at 30 million reais ($5.7 million), which will not be refunded. Durigan said that new advertising contracts for betting companies were also immediately banned, while current contracts would be void after October 6.

As of that date, there will be no “site, no application and no legal sponsorship of bets in the country,” he said. Powerhouse football club Flamengo called the move a “heavy blow to Brazilian sports,” warning it could impact not only professional football, but youth academies, women’s soccer, Olympic sports, and various championships. “Brazil spent years debating how to regulate sports betting,” the club said in a statement. “One cannot establish a rule, induce companies and institutions to make commitments based on it, and then, overnight, overhaul the entire regulatory framework.”

– Bolsonaro slams ‘desperate’ Lula – Durigan said the government had attempted to regulate the industry, but it had become a public health issue, with more than 60 billion reais ($11 billion) flowing from families to legal betting companies. “I spoke with a young guy who tried to kill himself three times” over his gambling addiction, said Lula after signing a provisional measure enforcing the ban. “I decided to take a necessary, tough, and drastic measure. It’s like cancer,” he said. “Either we remove the tumor, or it kills us.”

The measure will, however, require approval by Congress to become law. Bolsonaro slammed the move in a statement earlier Friday. “President Lula is desperate,” said Bolsonaro, describing the move as another “populist, hypocritical, and election-driven” measure on the eve of the polls. Several soccer clubs have expressed opposition to the ban, arguing that betting sponsors are vital to their financial health. Lula said this argument is “nonsense” and called for an end to the “shamelessness in soccer.”

The National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), which represents licensed betting operators, joined eight other industry groups Thursday in warning that prohibition could drive gamblers toward illegal platforms. It also highlighted a loss in tax revenue and jobs. In 2025, the sector paid 9.95 billion reais ($1.73 billion) in taxes to the federal government. “The challenges are real. The answer lies in oversight and stronger regulation,” said the ANJL in a statement. “To regulate is to control. To ban is to lose control.”

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Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking reelection on October 4, promptly visited the area, calling the oil a “passport to the future.” Reaching Oiapoque requires travelling 600 kilometers (370 miles) from state capital Macapa, part of it along a red dirt road riddled with potholes. Makeshift wooden bridges are used to cross waterways. Many streets in the town have no sidewalks and are lined with low-rise buildings with run-down facades, although numerous construction projects are underway.

– ‘Disappointed’ with Lula – While many residents are excited about a potential oil bonanza in their poverty-stricken town, Karipuna is far from convinced. “In the event of a spill, we will inevitably be affected. Water has no borders,” said the 57-year-old chief. He fears an “immense disaster” if an oil leak off the coast is carried into the Curipi River, which runs alongside his village of 1,800 inhabitants. Petrobras has said its analyses do “not indicate the probability” of oil “reaching the coast in the event of a spill.”

“There is no such thing as zero risk in offshore exploration,” Jean Paul Prates, who headed Petrobras in 2023-2024 and now chairs the energy and natural resources thinktank Cerne, told AFP. “It is a low-probability risk, but with potentially high consequences.” Karipuna says he is “disappointed” with Lula, who presents himself as a defender of the environment and Indigenous peoples. Lula has said that while he is against fossil fuels, he believes the world cannot live without them yet and that oil can finance the transition to clean energy.

Karipuna said he is already feeling the impact of oil exploration because of “the noise from planes and helicopters,” which he said scares away birds and game. His concerns are shared by Joelso Mendonca, vice president of a group of nearly 400 traditional fishermen. “If there is an oil spill, nobody is going to want to buy our fish,” the 50-year-old said while repairing his net in a stilted shack on the riverbank. Petrobras told AFP it had “maintained continuous dialogue” with civil society and Indigenous communities. Regarding air traffic, the company said it had made “adjustments” following consultations with Indigenous leaders.

— ‘Starting from scratch’ — While some see the potential oil as a curse, Jacqueline Cadete considers it a “sign from God.” The 45-year-old evangelical pastor moved to Oiapoque at the end of 2025, attracted by oil “opportunities” after living abroad for many years in French Guiana and metropolitan France. According to a study by the National Industry Observatory, more than 50,000 jobs could be created in Amapa. Any royalty payments Petrobras will have to make once production begins could provide a considerable windfall for local authorities.

However, Petrobras president, Magda Chambriard, announced in August that production was not expected to begin for another “six or seven years.” In the meantime, Mayor Inacio Monteiro Maciel is “very optimistic” about the future, even though the city will have to “practically start from scratch” in terms of infrastructure and social policies. More than half of the roughly 28,000 inhabitants recorded in the town’s 2022 census receive Bolsa Familia, a benefit paid to Brazil’s poorest households. But the city has experienced an influx of newcomers in recent years, which has “intensified” since Petrobras began drilling, the mayor said. He estimates that 40,000 to 45,000 people already live in Oiapoque.

— ‘The new Dubai’ — The mayor said that a rise in “real estate speculation” has pushed many families out of the city center into new peripheral neighborhoods, where conditions are often precarious. In a neighborhood called Nova Conquista, 32-year-old Thais Pereira de Souza lives in a tiny house with a corrugated metal roof, without water or electricity, alongside her husband, her two sons, and her pregnant daughter-in-law. They are crammed into a single room with two mattresses and two hammocks after they were no longer able to afford their studio apartment in the city center. She expects “life to improve” thanks to the oil.

Lilma Campos, president of Oiapoque’s Commercial and Industrial Association, anticipates a “radical change” but prefers to keep her feet on the ground. “Just because oil has been found, some people think this will become the new Dubai, but we really don’t know what’s going to happen.”

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Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for re-election in October, has admitted to meeting with the figure at the heart of this scandal. Lula’s right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former president and convicted coup-plotter Jair Bolsonaro, meanwhile asked the banker to finance a film about his jailed father. This week, the publication of messages Vorcaro sent to top Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes has unleashed a fresh crisis in Brazil’s top court, just ahead of the presidential elections.

Vorcaro was arrested last November as he boarded a private jet in Sao Paulo, but was later released on bail. In the days leading up to his detention, he sent around 30 text messages to a phone number attributed to Moraes. The judge oversaw the trial of ex-president Bolsonaro and is a powerful and polarizing figure in Brazil. “Do you think I need to be out of the country as early as Monday?” the banker asked on November 15 in one of those texts. He also apparently asked the judge to help halt the probe that would lead to his arrest and even set up meetings, the police report seen by AFP reveals. The report does not disclose how Moraes answered. Its findings have added to the Supreme Court’s growing list of Vorcaro-related problems given that one justice has already been tainted by association with the banker. Judge Jose Dias Toffoli was removed from Banco Master proceedings when it emerged that Vorcaro’s brother-in-law had purchased part of a resort in 2021 from the judge’s brothers.

Lula has admitted that he and Vorcaro held an off-the-record meeting in December 2024. And Senator Jaques Wagner, a Lula ally, is under investigation for allegedly receiving $1 million in cash and benefits including a luxury apartment to defend Master Banco in Congress. Wagner has stepped down as the government’s chief senator while maintaining his innocence. Vorcaro does not appear to mind whether his alleged associates are on the left or right of politics, however. He allegedly transferred around $12 million dollars to current conservative presidential candidate Bolsonaro at his request, investigative journalism outlet Intercept Brasil reported. Bolsonaro acknowledged his contacts with the banker regarding the financing of a film about his jailed father, titled “Dark Horse,” but denies any wrongdoing. Vorcaro is also reportedly in touch with lawmakers from Bolsonaro’s political party, including Congressman Nikolas Ferreira. In a message leaked to the press, Vorcaro says he paid for flights for Ferreira, who admitted having contacts with him but denied that the pair were close. As for the Supreme Court, Lula said “everyone” must be investigated, “no matter who it hurts.”

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A government statement said the lawsuit filed Tuesday in the capital, Brasilia, was brought after failed negotiations with Discord, whose proposals were “deemed insufficient to eliminate the identified risks.” “The lawsuit seeks to compel the Discord platform to adopt effective measures to protect children, adolescents, and women in the digital environment,” said the statement. “It also requests that the company be ordered to pay R$ 500 million ($97 million) in compensation for collective moral damages.”

The messaging platform, with over 90 million active daily users, agreed to suspend livestreaming in Brazil on August 17, assuring it was working “to make Discord safer for teens.” However, Brasilia said it “continues to exhibit flaws in its age verification and user protection mechanisms,” exposing users to serious risks, such as those that resulted in the girl’s death in July. Five teenagers and an adult have been arrested in connection with the suicide in a small town in central-western Brazil.

Over 45 minutes, the teens allegedly encouraged the girl to kill an animal, and when she failed to do so, they encouraged her to kill herself, according to an official with the Justice Ministry’s Ciberlab intelligence unit. One of the teens arrested was just 14. Brazil is demanding that Discord implement stricter parental controls, cooperate more closely with the authorities, and implement systems capable of detecting and preventing situations that put minors at risk.

In a statement sent to AFP, the platform expressed regret over the legal action and said it had “consistently and in good faith” maintained dialogue with the authorities. “We believe there is a better way and remain committed to working with the relevant authorities to reach a solution that strengthens safety on the platform while allowing Brazilians to continue using Discord,” it stated.

– ‘Powerful signal’ – Brazil has taken a tough stance against social media platforms, cracking down on disinformation and requiring users under 16 to link their accounts to those of their parents. On Tuesday, the ANPD fined TikTok nearly $30 million for failing to implement child safety measures in what it called a “powerful signal” to social media companies.

ANPD director Lorena Giuberti Coutinho said the agency last week initiated proceedings to verify the compliance of 22 social media networks and platforms with a law passed this year to protect children and teens online. “I think we can expect much stronger enforcement action” in the coming months, she said. Brazil’s Supreme Court has also locked horns with Big Tech, specifically Elon Musk’s X, over online disinformation. Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes has been accused by the Brazilian and American right of censorship for, among other things, blocking access to X for 40 days in 2024.

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A government statement said the lawsuit filed Tuesday in the capital, Brasilia, was brought after failed negotiations with Discord, whose proposals were “deemed insufficient to eliminate the identified risks.” “The lawsuit seeks to compel the Discord platform to adopt effective measures to protect children, adolescents, and women in the digital environment,” said the statement. “It also requests that the company be ordered to pay R$ 500 million ($97 million) in compensation for collective moral damages.”

The messaging platform, with over 90 million active daily users, agreed to suspend livestreaming in Brazil on August 17, assuring it was working “to make Discord safer for teens.” However, Brasilia said it “continues to exhibit flaws in its age verification and user protection mechanisms,” exposing users to serious risks, such as those that resulted in the girl’s death in July. Five teenagers and an adult have been arrested in connection with the suicide in a small town in central-western Brazil.

Over 45 minutes, the teens allegedly encouraged the girl to kill an animal, and when she failed to do so, they encouraged her to kill herself, according to an official with the Justice Ministry’s Ciberlab intelligence unit. One of the teens arrested was just 14. Brazil is demanding that Discord implement stricter parental controls, cooperate more closely with the authorities, and implement systems capable of detecting and preventing situations that put minors at risk.

In a blog post earlier this month, Discord co-founder Stanislav Vishnevskiy assured that the company was working “to make Discord safer for teens.”

Brazil has taken a tough stance against social media platforms, cracking down on disinformation and requiring users under 16 to have their accounts linked to those of their parents. On Tuesday, the ANPD fined TikTok nearly $30 million for failing to implement child safety measures in what it said was a “powerful signal” to social media companies. ANPD director Lorena Giuberti Coutinho said the agency last week initiated proceedings to verify the compliance of 22 social media networks and platforms with a law passed this year to protect children and teens online.

“I think we can expect much stronger enforcement action” in coming months, she said. Brazil’s Supreme Court has also locked horns with Big Tech, specifically Elon Musk’s X, over online disinformation. Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes has been accused by the Brazilian and American right of censorship for, among other things, blocking access to X for 40 days in 2024.

© 2024 AFP

Relations between Trump and the leftist Lula have blown hot and cold in recent months, but diplomatic tensions have flared as the election approaches. Trump has backed several victorious right-wing candidates in recent Latin American elections. He is an ally of Brazil’s jailed far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, whose son Flavio is Lula’s main election rival. The Brazilian presidency statement said the conversation between Trump and Lula lasted an hour and 20 minutes and “took place in a friendly and cordial tone.”

During a campaign event in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais, Lula said Trump asked Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to contact his Brazilian counterpart Marcio Elias Rosa “and they already scheduled a meeting.” He added that Trump acknowledged during their call that the tariffs on Brazil are “based on a lie.” Lula, who like Trump is 80, has made national sovereignty a key theme of his campaign. In an interview last week, he warned Trump: “Don’t meddle in Brazil’s affairs, especially regarding the election. If you do meddle, you’ll lose.”

“I said, ‘Hey Trump, if you want to fight organized crime, let’s fight organized crime,'” Lula told the crowd in Minas Gerais. “We want to work together. What we don’t want is interference in Brazil.”

– ‘Daily terror’ – The two leaders have often appeared to get on well one-on-one, with Trump last year hailing an “excellent chemistry” with Lula. The US last year dropped punitive tariffs it imposed over the trial against Jair Bolsonaro, which Trump labelled a “witch hunt,” after diplomatic efforts by Lula’s government. However, Lula then suffered a blow after a May visit to the White House by Flavio Bolsonaro. Two days later, the US designated Brazil’s two largest drug cartels as terrorist organizations — which Flavio has said was a personal request.

“These criminal groups inflict daily terror on the most vulnerable populations, but they are not the same as terrorist organizations,” Lula told Trump. Security is the main concern of Brazilians heading into this year’s elections, polls have shown. Flavio Bolsonaro is pushing for a tough-on-crime model like that of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, whose sweeping crackdown on gangs and mass detentions have drawn controversy.

– Deforestation and PIX – The United States imposed a 25-percent tariff on a range of Brazilian goods over policies it argued harm US commerce — such as deforestation and a free electronic payments system known as PIX. Brazilian data shows deforestation in the Amazon fell last year to its lowest point since 2016. Brazil was also impacted under a separate global tariff regime against US trading partners accused of using forced labor. Lula has repeatedly said he believes it was US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and not Trump who was behind the tariffs against Brazil. “Trump is the best of the lot, and the one who talks most seriously with me,” he said last week.

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Chief financial officer Felipe Santana said most of the additional profits were from a one-off tax credit of $68 million, which he described as a “refund” of previous tariffs. Revenue rose 23 percent to $2.24 billion in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the company’s pipeline of orders of its commercial, business, and military aircraft reached a record $34.5 billion.

“We delivered the strongest second-quarter revenue in our history. We achieved our highest second-quarter deliveries in the past 16 years and reached a new all-time high backlog for the seventh consecutive quarter,” said CEO Francisco Gomes Neto. Embraer delivered 65 aircraft during the second quarter, up from 61 a year earlier. Gomes Neto highlighted an order of 10 of the company’s KC-390 military transport aircraft by the United Arab Emirates — the largest international order to date. This month, Colombia ordered two of the aircraft.

“Because of the geo-political situation we have seen countries accelerating sales campaigns,” said Gomes Neto. He added that despite higher ticket costs, the air transportation industry had been “extremely resilient…people are still flying” and demand was still rising for new planes.

Embraer executives also gave an update on Eve Air Mobility, a subsidiary developing electric “air taxis” designed to shuttle passengers above congested city streets. This month, Eve achieved its first transition flight, showing its prototype can take off vertically like a helicopter and move into flight like an airplane, which is one of the most challenging phases of development.

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Various products like beef, coffee, and aircraft parts will be exempted from the levy, and roughly half of Brazil’s exports to the United States would remain excluded from the duty, estimates Valentina Sader of the Atlantic Council think tank. Nonetheless, the move comes as Trump makes a renewed push to use tariffs as leverage, sparking fears of retaliation and heightened tensions. Officials could be “using Brazil as an example to send a broader message about its priorities and negotiating approach,” Sader told AFP.

While the US Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs in February, dealing a blow to his ability to impose new duties at will, Washington has moved to rebuild his trade agenda using other powers. The United States stating that the Brazil tariffs were imposed as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to negotiate in good faith also “reinforces the perception that the action is directed not only at Brazil’s trade practices, but also politically at Lula himself,” Sader said. The duty is becoming a major campaign flashpoint ahead of Brazil’s October presidential elections. The American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil recently warned that Washington’s measure affects more than $11 billion in exports.

Trump on Tuesday also announced a 100-percent tariff on generic drugs from August 2028, a day after ordering a 50-percent duty on many Canadian goods to take effect in 30 days. A broader sweep is yet to come, with officials in June proposing tariffs of between 10 percent and 12.5 percent targeting 60 trading partners over alleged failures to act against forced labor. Analysts widely expect the duties over forced labor to replace the temporary 10-percent global tariff – expiring Friday – that Trump imposed after his Supreme Court setback. “We expect to see some action soon,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC.

– Forced labor concerns –

Greer added Tuesday that new action over labor concerns will cover a majority of US trade, though it could reignite trade tensions. The lower 10-percent tariff rate would hit US imports from partners including Canada, the European Union, Mexico, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. They were found to have taken some steps against forced labor. Goods from over 40 other economies like China, India, and Japan face a 12.5 percent levy. The EU has said that it considers tariffs imposed on these grounds “unjustified.” A separate tranche of US investigations targeting 16 economies over excess industrial capacity is ongoing and could lead to further duties.

– Canada pressure –

Washington’s planned 50-percent tariff on Canadian goods comes amid ongoing talks over a North American free trade pact. Washington recently declined to extend the accord as-is, and Greer is set to travel to Mexico from Wednesday to Friday for discussions linked to a joint review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). US negotiations with Canada have proceeded more slowly. Some lawyers see Trump’s use of an untested legal provision – Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 – as a means to gain leverage over Canada in USMCA negotiations. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday that he was looking at “all options,” adding that he and Trump had agreed to “intensify discussions” in upcoming weeks. Trade lawyer Dave Townsend of Dorsey & Whitney said higher tariffs could be “aimed at encouraging an agreement between Canada and the United States, or in retaliation for the failure to reach such agreement, or both.” The question, he added, is whether both sides will start a “cycle of escalation and retaliation.”

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