Honestly the market can stay irrational longer than geopolitics can stay tidy, but “already priced in” is a dangerous phrase when tankers are literally taking hits. If even a few major cargoes get delayed, refiners in Asia and Europe start bidding like maniacs and then everyone acts shocked on Monday.

I get the panic angle, but this headline cycle has already been extreme for days and we still haven’t seen a full closure of the strait. Energy markets have been gaming this scenario forever, so some of the move is probably already in futures. The bigger question is whether this is theater plus selective strikes, or whether it actually turns into a sustained blockade.

Yeah, and the scary part is the market always waits for the first real supply shock before pricing in any of this. If Hormuz stays even partially shut, you don’t just get a crude pop — you get freight, insurance, LNG, fertilizer, and even shipping names all repricing at once. People love saying “transitory” until they’re staring at a second-order inflation wave.