Paris (France) (AFP) – With production in the Gulf countries at a standstill and gas prices rising, the war in the Middle East is disrupting the supply of fertilisers and posing risks for food security. A third of fertiliser shipped by sea comes from the region and cannot make it to the global market as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. That has sent global fertiliser prices soaring, with the UN expressing concern in particular about the impact on developing countries.
The Gulf is a key manufacturer. Natural gas is a key feedstock to make artificial fertilisers, and with its ample gas supplies, the Gulf region has become a key manufacturer. The region produces nearly half of the sulphur sold worldwide and a third of urea—”the most widely traded fertiliser of all,” said Sarah Marlow, global editor for fertilisers at Argus Media. It also produces a quarter of globally traded ammonia, another feedstock for fertiliser production, she said. Major food-producing nations like the United States and Australia source much of their urea and phosphate from the Gulf nations. Brazil, the world’s leading soybean producer, imports most of its urea from Qatar and from Iran, which also exports to Turkey and Mexico. India relies upon Saudi phosphate. Asia is in particular dependent upon the Gulf: it imports 64 percent of its ammonia and more than 50 percent of its sulphur and phosphates from the region, according to 2024 figures from Kpler.
But since the start of the conflict, which has seen Iran launch retaliatory strikes against its Gulf neighbours following US and Israeli strikes, production has had to be shut down at fertiliser production facilities, particularly in Qatar. And the Strait of Hormuz remains largely unnavigable. A Chinese vessel loaded with sulphur was able to leave on March 7, but around 20 other ships were still waiting as of the middle of the week, according to Kpler, which tracks commodity flows.
Global repercussions are also being felt. While Europe appears at first blush to be less exposed, sourcing just 11 percent of its urea from the region, it will likely be impacted indirectly. Morocco is a big supplier of phosphorus-based fertilisers to Europe, but is dependent upon the Gulf for sulphur used in their manufacturing. The EU also imports 26 percent of its urea from Egypt, but the country is confronted by a halt of natural gas supplies from Israel by pipeline, pointed out Argus Media consultant Arthur Portier. “Egyptian urea has gone from $500 per tonne at the start of the war to more than $650. There is a direct impact on the price of fertiliser,” for European farmers, he said. Other countries that source their gas from the Middle East to produce fertilisers, such as India, have had to ration supplies to their factories. Bangladesh has temporarily shut down five out of six of its factories. The UN expressed concern this week about access to fertilisers in some of the poorest countries.
Crop production is at risk. Artificial fertilisers provide nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium necessary for crop growth. For nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea, ammonium nitrate, and potassium, “global demand never ceases to increase, driven by Asia,” said Sylvain Pellerin at INREA, a French agricultural research institute. INREA models that without these three key fertiliser inputs, global crop production would fall by a third. But nitrogen fertilisers require natural gas for their chemical synthesis and a lot of energy. As for sulphur, it is a co-product of the oil and gas industry. “Where there is gas, you will find urea and ammonia,” said Argus’s Marlow. Production of phosphorus-based fertilisers starts with phosphate rock, of which Saudi Arabia supplies 20 percent of the world total but currently cannot ship it.
The outlook remains uncertain. In addition to the uncertainty about how long the war will last, the other question is the amount of damage that fertiliser production facilities will suffer from the fighting. Repairs and reconstruction of facilities could considerably delay a return to normality once the fighting ends. While the immediate needs of farmers are more or less covered, there are questions about the sowing season in the southern hemisphere that begins in June. Portier said the war could be the spark for Europe to develop a fertiliser supply strategy. Following the surge in fertiliser prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European farmers reduced their consumption and diversified their suppliers. The European Commission is preparing a fertiliser action plan for this year.
© 2024 AFP
