Washington (United States) (AFP) – US job growth surged past expectations in May with the unemployment rate remaining steady, as the labor market in the world’s largest economy showed signs of firming after months of turbulence. Wall Street stocks traded lower on the news, with investors expecting a strong labor market means the Federal Reserve will switch its focus to combating inflation through rate hikes later this year. US President Donald Trump railed at that development, insisting on social media that “stocks should go up, not down,” adding: “Growth does not mean inflation!”
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. US job growth has see-sawed between expansion and contraction from month to month over the last year, but May’s data marked the third straight month of increases. Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade, told AFP the new data was “pretty bulletproof” in establishing a job growth trend. “The economy’s on pretty firmer footing than we might have expected, and the only downside of this is it’s driven by probably a relatively small group of high-income, high-wealth holders that are really driving consumption,” he told AFP.
Friday’s data release also revised job growth numbers for March and April upwards by a combined 93,000. The leisure and hospitality sector added 70,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since 2023. The sector “had an extra lift from hiring triggered by the upcoming World Cup matches,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. Health care remained one of the labor market’s strongest performers, with 35,000 jobs added in May. Employment in the financial activities sector declined by 22,000, with losses in insurance and commercial banking. Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, flagged concern that recent jobs gains were “led by just a few categories.”
Yields on US Treasury bonds rose in response to the data, fueling market anticipation of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Central bank policymakers have expressed rising concern at persistent higher-than-targeted inflation, fueled by Trump’s war on Iran. With the labor market’s recent strength, they will likely be more inclined to concentrate on the inflation side of the Federal Reserve’s mandate. The US central bank has the dual mission of keeping inflation to its long-term two-percent target while also ensuring maximum employment.
Average hourly earnings rose 3.4 percent year-on-year in May, Friday’s data showed, lagging behind inflation and resulting in a loss of household purchasing power. Allianz’s North said wage gains had largely been lagging inflation since 2021, “and it’s the reason why people still hate the economy.” Addressing inflation could require the Fed to raise interest rates in a bid to cool rising prices — a move certain to anger Trump. The US president has launched an unprecedented assault on the Fed’s independence, demanding the central bank lower rates to boost economic activity.
New Fed chief Kevin Warsh will chair his first meeting of the rate-setting committee, where 12 policymakers vote on the rate, later this month. On Friday, Trump said he would “like to see lower interest rates” but that he would “let Kevin make that decision.” The Fed paused its rate-cutting cycle in January, and has remained in a wait-and-see posture as the fallout of the Iran war ripples through the US economy. Analysts expect rates to stay steady for now, with CME’s FedWatch showing that markets were pricing in a likely rate hike by December.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Friday’s jobs report showed the labor market was stable, but she remained concerned about inflation. “For today, it’s reasonable to keep rates steady given the uncertainties around the economic outlook. But if recent trends continue, it may soon be appropriate to act,” she wrote in an online post.
© 2024 AFP
