New York (AFP) – Stock markets wobbled on Thursday as investors awaited a highly-anticipated speech by US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, hoping he would drop more clues about an expected interest rate cut. The Dow, the broader S&P 500, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq had all opened on the right foot, extending gains from the previous day, but faltered later in the morning. All three major US indices fell, led by the Nasdaq with a drop of 1.7 percent.
In Europe, Paris finished flat, while London and Frankfurt were in the green, but not as strong as earlier in the day when key surveys showed business activity accelerated in Britain and the eurozone in August. The spotlight will turn to Powell on Friday when he addresses an annual gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with investors eager to hear some fresh signals about the Fed’s plans.
“We can see the mounting tension (heading) into Powell’s speech,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, told AFP. “Markets are preparing for possible turbulence on Friday,” she added. Investor confidence in a rate cut grew after minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that most members believed it would be “appropriate” to lower borrowing costs in September.
Traders were also buoyed by official figures showing that US employers added around 68,000 fewer jobs monthly in the year to March than initially estimated. US data released Thursday showed initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 last week, a modest rise “that won’t alter the market’s rate cut view,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare. A softer US labor market, along with cooling inflation, gives the central bank room to start reducing rates that were brought to a 23-year high in order to bring down soaring consumer prices.
The only doubt is how far the Fed will go, with many analysts banking on a cut of 25 basis points in September, though others are saying policymakers could go as high as 50 basis points. “Investors are trimming long bets into Friday’s Powell speech with the expectation that the Fed Chair will likely hint at a September rate cut though at a moderate pace,” Ozkardeskaya said. “The latter is not a bad sign in the medium run, mind you, as a 50bp would require a deep economic slowdown which is not necessarily good news for valuations,” she added.
Some analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 100 basis points by the end of the year. “If Powell is upbeat about the economy, this would reinforce the increasingly prevailing view that the US is likely to avoid a recession, which has triggered the recent recovery in equity markets,” said Mahmoud Alkudsi, senior market analyst at financial services firm ADSS. “However, this would also suggest that smaller rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, rather than 100 basis points, might be delivered over the course of this year, which could support the short-term value of the dollar.”
– Key figures around 2050 GMT –
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.4 percent at 40,712.78 (close)
New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.9 percent at 5,570.64 (close)
New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 1.7 percent at 17,619.35 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 8,288.00 (close)
Paris – CAC 40: FLAT at 7,524.11 (close)
Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.2 percent at 18,493.39 (close)
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 38,211.01 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.4 percent at 17,641.00 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 2,848.77 (close)
Dollar/yen: UP at 146.27 yen from 145.21 yen on Wednesday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1115 from $1.1150
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3092 from $1.3091
Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.87 pence from 85.17 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.5 percent at $73.01 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.5 percent at $77.22 per barrel
© 2024 AFP
