Paris (AFP) – US stocks rebounded Friday before a much-anticipated speech by US Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell that could shed more light on expected interest-rate cuts. Wall Street’s three main indexes rose at the open, after falling the previous day, while European markets were up in afternoon deals. Tokyo and Shanghai closed higher, but Hong Kong fell.
The dollar pared down losses against the yen, which had strengthened after Bank of Japan chief Kazuo Ueda signalled that Japanese rates could rise again. Investors have been on tenterhooks all week ahead of Powell’s address at the annual symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, due at 1400 GMT on Friday. Powell has already indicated that a reduction could come as soon as September, but traders want to hear fresh signals from the Fed chief following a slew of data that raised recession fears and rocked the markets earlier this month.
The Fed has kept its rates at a 23-year high after raising them in efforts to combat inflation, which has cooled, while central banks in Europe have started to cut theirs. Speculation is rife about how big, or small, the first US cut might be. Most analysts expect a reduction of a quarter-percentage-point, but some traders hope for as much as half a point. “For investors, the big question is to what extent Powell validates expectations for a September rate cut, and whether he offers any indication of how big any rate cut might be,” said a Deutsche Bank note.
Powell’s speech comes after three Fed officials said they wanted to see more data before agreeing to a rate cut. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said Powell “is expected to douse the jumbo rate cut expectations because there is no reason for the Fed to start cutting the interest rates by big chunks in the absence of a severe economic slowdown, market stress, or a crisis.” Data released this week showed a robust US services industry but also a rise in jobless claims and a cooler-than-expected labour market.
While other major central banks are easing their rates, the Bank of Japan made its second hike in 17 years in late July, a move that caused the yen to rise and contributed to a market rout. Ueda told Japanese lawmakers on Friday that the BoJ could hike rates again if inflation and the economy performed as expected, and the yen rose against the dollar following his remarks. A stronger yen makes it less attractive for investors who use the cheaper currency to buy higher-yielding assets such as stocks, a practice known as “yen carry trade.” The last rate hike caused investors to unwind such trades.
In company news, shares in Alibaba rallied after the Chinese e-commerce giant said it would upgrade its Hong Kong-listed shares to primary status, opening it up to China’s huge army of investors. In Europe, Nestle shares fell after the surprise exit of its chief executive, Mark Schneider, following slowing sales and negative headlines at the Swiss food giant.
– Key figures around 1335 GMT –
New York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 40,917.45 points
New York – S&P 500: UP 0.6 percent at 5,602.51
New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.8 percent at 17,756.01
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 8,315.69
Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.4 percent at 7,554.74
Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.6 percent at 18,596.27
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.4 percent at 38,364.27 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.2 percent at 17,612.10 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 2,854.37 (close)
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 146.26 yen from 146.27 yen on Thursday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1108 from $1.1115
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3115 from $1.3092
Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.74 pence from 84.87 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.6 percent at $74.21 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.4 percent at $78.26 per barrel
© 2024 AFP
