Hong Kong (AFP) – Asian markets were mixed Friday as data showing China’s economy grew slightly quicker than expected last year failed to inspire investors, with Beijing battling to revive consumption and boost the battered property sector. The five percent expansion was in line with the target set by Beijing but the weakest since 1990 — excluding the pandemic years — as leaders fought to address weak consumption and a painful debt crisis in the vast property sector. A survey of 12 economists by AFP forecast growth of 4.9 percent.
A surge in the final quarter, helped by a string of stimulus measures, and a boost in retail sales were also unable to inject much optimism onto trading floors, which were already cautious as dealers prepare for Donald Trump’s second term amid fears of another China-US trade war. The 2024 growth figure came in the face of a “complicated and severe environment with increasing external pressures and internal difficulties,” the National Bureau of Statistics said. Beijing has introduced a series of measures in recent months to bolster the economy, including key interest rate cuts, easing local government debt, and expanding subsidy programs for household goods.
However, analysts surveyed by AFP warned it could fall to just 4.4 percent this year and even drop below four percent in 2026. One of the rare bright spots for the economy last year was trade, with exports hitting a historic high, but its massive trade surplus means Beijing may not be able to count on exports to continue to provide support. Trump, who returns to the White House on Monday, has promised to impose more hefty sanctions on China.
“Amid a relentless barrage of economic pessimism, China’s economy defied expectations with a robust five percent growth last year, nailing the government’s ambitious target,” said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management. “This surge was fuelled by a vigorous export boom and aggressive stimulus measures that counterbalanced the sluggish domestic demand. Although slightly outpacing analyst forecasts, this growth fell just shy of the 5.2 percent expansion seen in 2023, painting a picture of an economy with both promising highs and undeniable challenges.”
Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, added: “After the success in reaching the growth target in 2024, the key question for 2025 is where policymakers will set the growth target at the upcoming Two Sessions in March. Our baseline scenario has policymakers electing to set a target of ‘around five percent’ again or at the least a target of ‘above 4.5 percent’. The setting of such a growth target despite likely headwinds from tariffs and sanctions would imply that we will see stronger fiscal policy support as well as continued monetary policy easing and would likely be seen by markets as a signal of confidence.”
Hong Kong and Shanghai squeezed out small gains, while Seoul, Sydney, Mumbai, and Bangkok fell. Singapore, Taipei, Wellington, Jakarta, and Manila rose. Tokyo also dropped, with gaming giant Nintendo diving more than four percent — having shed seven percent in the morning — after it failed to impress with a brief video preview of its highly anticipated new Switch 2 console. London, Paris, and Frankfurt extended Thursday’s strong gains at the open.
The tepid performance in Asia followed a lacklustre day on Wall Street where investors were unable to extend Wednesday’s inflation-sparked rally. US investors were barely moved by the latest dovish comments from a top Federal Reserve official that hinted at a further easing of monetary policy this year. Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that Wednesday’s below-forecast core inflation data was “very good,” adding that “we had a couple of bumpy months in September and October but it looks like it’s getting back to trend.”
“If we continue getting numbers like this, it’s reasonable to think rate cuts could happen in the first half of the year,” he said, indicating he would not rule out a cut in March. He said the number of reductions would be data-dependent. His comments came as figures showed US retail sales grew at a slightly slower pace than expected from November to December but still at a solid increase, while the National Retail Federation forecast a bigger-than-expected rise in US holiday sales. Consumer price index figures on Wednesday fell just short of estimates, which eased concerns the Fed will keep interest rates high.
– Key figures around 0815 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.3 percent at 38,451.46 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 19,584.06 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,241.82 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 1.0 percent at 8,471.62
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0286 from $1.0306 on Thursday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2173 from $1.2237
Dollar/yen: UP at 155.59 yen from 155.17 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 84.48 pence from 84.18 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.9 percent at $79.35 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.6 percent at $81.81 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 43,153.13 (close)
© 2024 AFP
