Hong Kong (AFP) – Stocks mostly rose Thursday and the dollar fell as investors eye US jobs data that could play a key role in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, while investors gave a lukewarm reception to the US-Vietnam trade deal. Attention was also on Washington as Republicans struggled to push Donald Trump’s tax-slashing budget bill through the House of Representatives amid warnings it will inflate an already ballooning national debt.
Investors are keenly awaiting the non-farm payrolls figures due later Thursday as they increase bets on Fed rate cuts. The report comes a day after news that the private sector unexpectedly shed jobs last month for the first time since March 2023, suggesting the labour market was slackening. Traders widely expect the bank to cut rates twice this year but there is growing speculation that it could make three, with one possibly at the July meeting. “Payrolls is the focus (Thursday), where consensus is for a 110,000 payrolls gain and a slight lift in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent,” said National Australia Bank’s Taylor Nugent. “It would take more than that to dent (policy board) members’ comfort (that) the labour market is resilient enough to wait beyond July for more clarity on inflation and the outlook.” Bets on rates coming down — possibly this month but more likely in September or October — lifted most equities.
Tokyo, Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul, Taipei, Manila, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta edged up with London, Paris and Frankfurt. But Hong Kong and Wellington fell while Sydney was flat. There was a muted response to the US-Vietnam trade deal. While the pact provided hope that other governments could reach agreements with Washington, dealers were cautious as it emerged that Vietnam must still pay tolls of as much as 40 percent for certain exports. With less than a week left until the US president’s July 9 deadline to avoid his “reciprocal” levies, only Britain has signed a deal with the United States while China has agreed a framework that slashed sky-high tit-for-tat levies. The news means Hanoi will avoid paying the 46 percent tolls initially applied on the April 2 tariff blitz, though the cost of goods going into America will still surge.
The stock exchanges in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi both dipped. Trump said this week he will not push back his deadline to make more deals, though he and some of his officials have said a number were in the pipeline. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said Thursday his administration was doing its “utmost” to secure an agreement but warned “it’s certainly not easy, that much is clear.” “I can’t say with confidence that we’ll be able to wrap everything up” by the deadline. Still, firms that make goods in Vietnam to ship to the United States enjoyed gains, with Seoul-listed packaged food giant Daesang in the green along with the Hong Kong shares of Nike supplier Yue Yuen. Glover-maker Ansell also edged up in Sydney.
US Treasury yields rose amid fresh worries in the bond market over Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” that aims to cut taxes and spending on programmes such as Medicaid. Independent analysis suggests it will add $3 trillion to the already-colossal US debt mountain, which observers warn could deal a fresh blow to the world’s top economy. Still, with some Republicans in the House of Representatives holding out over certain features of the bill, there is talk that lawmakers will not be able to get it to Trump’s desk by the July 4 deadline he has set.
– Key figures at around 0810 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.1 percent at 39,785.90 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.6 percent at 24,069.94 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,461.15 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 8,817.65
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1802 from $1.1801 on Wednesday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3655 from $1.3634
Dollar/yen: UP at 143.90 yen from 143.65 yen
Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.42 pence from 86.52 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.9 percent at $66.85 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.8 percent at $68.54 per barrel
New York – Dow: FLAT at 44,484.42 (close)
© 2024 AFP
