Hong Kong (AFP) – Most stock markets bounced on Monday as the chances of US interest rate cuts following a big miss on US jobs creation offset concerns about the world’s top economy. The broad advances followed a sell-off on Wall Street in reaction to the non-farm payrolls data, which compounded news on Friday that dozens of countries would be hit with levies ranging from 10 to 41 percent. With the date of implementation for the tariffs pushed back to Thursday, focus will be on talks this week between Washington and other capitals on paring down some of the tolls.
Traders were taken by surprise by figures showing the US economy created just 73,000 jobs in July — against 104,000 forecast — while unemployment rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent. Job gains from June and May were also revised down by nearly 260,000. The figures stoked concerns that Trump’s tariffs are beginning to bite, with inflation also seen pushing back towards three percent. The reading also saw the president fire the commissioner of labour statistics, accusing her of manipulating employment data for political reasons.
Bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its September meeting shot up following the jobs numbers, with some analysts predicting it will go for a 50-basis-point reduction, rather than the regular 25 points. Yields on US Treasury bonds fell sharply as investors priced in the cuts. Asian investors started the day on the back foot but fought back as it wore on. Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Manila, Mumbai, and Bangkok all rose, though there were losses in Tokyo, Wellington, Taipei, and Jakarta. London, Paris, and Frankfurt ticked up at the open but Swiss shares sank more than two percent.
US futures rose, after Friday’s selloff saw the S&P 500 and Dow each lose more than one percent and the Nasdaq more than two percent — with some also questioning whether a recent rally to multiple records has gone too far. The dollar edged up but continued to struggle against its major peers after tanking on the jobs report.
George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, said before the jobs reading, “all signs pointed to a solid US labour market. But that has been put into question by July’s US jobs report. Concerningly, both May and June were revised down by…the biggest two-month net downward revision outside of the pandemic.” He added: “While it is important not to read too much into one data point, especially one as noisy as non-farm payrolls, the news that job creation was below 20,000 in May and June will certainly give the Federal Reserve food for thought.”
“Our base case had been for the Fed to hold rates for the rest of 2025, but any further fragility could encourage an earlier easing cycle.” Investors will now be keenly awaiting every utterance from Fed boss Jerome Powell leading up to the next policy meeting, not least because of the pressure Trump has put on him to lower rates. Observers said news that governor Adriani Kugler will step down from the bank six months early will give the president a chance to increase his influence on decision-making.
“Fed credibility, and the veracity of the statistics on which they base their policy decisions, are both now under the spotlight,” said National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill. “Fed officials, such as New York President John Williams speaking after the data, profess to be open-minded about the September Fed meeting, but Mr. Market has already decided they are cutting — ending Friday 88 percent priced for a 25-basis-points rate reduction.”
Oil edged slightly higher despite supply worries after OPEC and other key producers agreed to another output hike and amid signs Trump’s tariffs were impacting the economy. The commodity sank almost three percent Friday.
– Key figures at around 0715 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.3 percent at 40,290.70 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.9 percent at 24,724.05
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.7 percent at 3,583.31 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 9,089.46
Dollar/yen: UP at 147.55 yen from 147.43 yen on Friday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1575 from $1.1586
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3287 from $1.3276
Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.12 pence from 87.25 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $67.48 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $69.73 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 1.2 percent at 43,588.58 (close)
© 2024 AFP
