Hong Kong (AFP) – Asian markets fell again Wednesday as traders fret over the impact of Donald Trump’s presidency on the Chinese and global economies, with fears that his policies could also reignite US inflation. The prospect of prices spiking again on the back of tax cuts, import tariffs, and an easing of regulations gave fresh impetus to the dollar, which has rallied since the Republican’s election win last week.
Traders are also keeping tabs on bitcoin after it came within a whisker of breaking $90,000 for the first time, though observers are betting on it hitting $100,000 owing to Trump’s pro-crypto campaign pledges. After an initial rally in the wake of the tycoon regaining the White House, Asian markets have pulled back this week as his cabinet begins to emerge. The naming of known China hawks to key positions has fuelled concerns about another debilitating trade war between the economic superpowers.
“We expect the effective tariff rate on US imports from China to rise to around 40 percent,” said Harry Murphy Cruise at Moody’s Analytics. “That would effectively double the rate today and be a similar increase to that seen during the first trade war. It’s likely the threat of further tariffs up to the touted 60 percent would be used as a negotiating tool,” he told AFP. “China would almost certainly follow suit, imposing tariffs of its own of equal magnitude.” The threat of another standoff comes as Beijing struggles to kickstart growth at home, unveiling a raft of measures at the end of September but leaving traders disappointed with anything new at a much-anticipated announcement Friday.
Uncertainty about the outlook heading into 2025 was weighing on Asian equities, with Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Wellington and Mumbai all in the red. Still, Shanghai, Singapore, Manila and Bangkok rose, while London opened higher. Paris and Frankfurt dipped at the open. The selling came after a negative lead from Wall Street, where all three main indexes finished in the red as investors took a breather from a week-long rally to more record highs.
Bitcoin was sitting at 87,654. The dollar extended gains against its peers, having tapped a one-year high versus the euro, while it pushed back above 155 yen. The greenback has risen as dealers pare bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts after Trump’s win, with two seen through to June, compared with four forecast before the election, according to Bloomberg.
Focus is now on the release of key US October consumer price data due later in the day, with expectations for a slight uptick from the previous month. The reading will be pored over for an idea about the central bank’s plans for borrowing costs when it meets again in December. It cut rates 25 basis points last week, having slashed them by 50 points in September, the first since the start of the pandemic.
– Key figures around 0810 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.7 percent at 38,721.66 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 19,823.45 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,439.28 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 8,034.76
Dollar/yen: UP at 155.07 yen from 154.59 yen on Tuesday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0606 from $1.0625
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2737 from $1.2748
Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.27 pence from 83.34 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.1 percent at $68.18 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $71.96 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.9 percent at 43,910.98 (close)
© 2024 AFP
