Crude spikes as Trump threatens Russian giants, stocks turn lower ~ EconomyLens.com

Hong Kong (AFP) – Crude prices spiked more than two percent Thursday after Donald Trump said he would hit two Russian oil companies with hefty sanctions, while talk that the White House was planning curbs on software exports to China added to gloom on markets. Both main oil contracts jumped almost three percent — having climbed more than two percent Tuesday — on news of the measures after the US leader said Ukraine peace efforts with counterpart Vladimir Putin “don’t go anywhere”.

The move was joined by another round of punishments by the European Union as part of attempts to pressure Moscow to end its three-and-a-half-year invasion of Ukraine. Trump decided on the sanctions after plans for a fresh summit with Putin in Budapest collapsed this week. “Every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they don’t go anywhere,” the US president said in response to a question from an AFP journalist in the Oval Office. But he hoped the “tremendous sanctions” on oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil Oil would be short-lived, and that “the war will be settled”.

Brent and WTI were both sitting at near two week-highs after the spikes, helped by claims by Trump that India agreed to cut its purchases of the commodity from Russia as part of a US trade deal. New Delhi has neither confirmed nor denied any policy shift.

Equity markets fortunes were not as good, with most of Asia tracking losses on Wall Street amid lingering concerns that a tech-led surge to record highs this year may be reaching its end, and some observers warning of a bubble forming. Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta all tumbled, though Singapore, Seoul and Wellington edged up.

And gold clawed back some of the previous two days’ losses, edging up around one percent to $4,075 — but well down from the record high above $4,381 touched earlier in the week. While there is an expectation Trump will meet Chinese counterpart next week at the APEC summit in South Korea, investors were jolted slightly when he suggested that might not take place.

And on Wednesday uncertainty was stoked again after a report said the administration was looking at curbing shipments of a range of software-powered exports to China, including laptops and jet engines, owing to Beijing’s rare earths controls. Those mineral controls sparked a round of tit-for-tat exchanges between the superpowers that sparked fresh trade war worries, including Trump’s threat of 100 percent tariffs on China.

“Everything is on the table,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent replied when asked about limits on software exports to China. “If these export controls, whether it’s software, engines or other things happen, it will likely be in coordination with our G7 allies,” he added, according to Bloomberg News.

There was a feeling that the issue was unlikely to explode into a full-on crisis, though analysts retained some caution. “Headlines that the US is considering software export curbs on China have certainly done risk no favours on the day,” said Pepperstone’s Chris Weston. They “inject a degree of doubt into the collective’s consensus position that we will ultimately see a positive resolution in the US–China trade negotiations”.

“The ingrained belief remains that Trump’s threat of 100 percent additional import tariffs on China is unlikely to take effect on 1 November — or, if they do, that they’ll be rolled back soon enough — and that China is unlikely to retaliate with punchy tariffs of its own.” But is the market mispricing the risk of a strong-arm response from either side—one that could contradict the conciliatory tone both US and Chinese officials have projected through the media?”