Equities mixed on flat retail sales, IMF inflation warning as gold soars ~ EconomyLens.com

London (AFP) – Global stock markets fluctuated Tuesday on rising expectations that Donald Trump will return to the White House against a backdrop of flat US retail sales and an IMF inflation warning.

Traders have also been sifting the tea leaves for a steer on when the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates.

The signs increasingly are that the long-awaited move is hoving in to view, that sentiment bolstered by gold hitting an all-time high of $2,463.80 Tuesday afternoon as bullion continues its upward march — adding some 18 percent this year to date on soaring demand for the precious metal. Gold, seen as a haven investment, added 1.7 percent as it crushed its previous record-high of 2,450.07 seen in May.

The Dow — which chalked up its first record since May on Monday — had added almost 1.3 percent two hours into the session after June retail sales slipped less than analysts had anticipated.

However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq had just edged into the red while major European indices slipped back as London, Frankfurt and Paris all finished down at the close. London and Paris lost close to one percent while Frankfurt dipped as a key survey showed German investor confidence fell for the first time in a year — and the German ZEW institute’s closely watched economic expectations index also fell to 41.8 points, from 47.5 points in June.

The International Monetary Fund weighed in with its latest global outlook update, which indicated the world economy will grow 3.2 percent this year, unchanged from its April forecast. But the IMF trimmed its forecasts for the United States and Japan and also warned of ongoing inflation risks and trade tensions ahead.

“For now, the prospect of looser monetary policy from the Fed and a favourable economic background is helping to keep a positive gloss on sentiment,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

The dollar firmed in line with Treasury yields on speculation that another Trump tariff battle with China and likely tax cuts could push inflation higher.

– ‘Complex landscape’ –

“The confluence of political developments, economic data, and central bank actions continues to create a complex landscape for global currencies,” said Luca Santos, market analyst at ACY Securities.

Recent polls show Trump’s chances of beating incumbent Joe Biden have surged since the weekend assassination attempt on the former president, while his choice of J.D.Vance as his November running mate saw US futures extend gains.

“Increased market confidence after Saturday’s failed assassination attempt that Donald Trump will be re-elected president in November has been reflected in market movements across US Treasuries, equities and currencies since the weekend,” said Ray Attrill at National Australia Bank.

Earlier, in Asia, Hong Kong dropped more than one percent owing to further losses in the tech sector, while Sydney, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta also fell. Tokyo, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Mumbai edged up and Shanghai was slightly higher with traders awaiting policy measures from China’s leaders as they hold a key economic meeting this week.

On the corporate front, Cartier-owner Richemont said its quarterly sales in China tumbled by 27 percent as the deepening economic malaise in the world’s second-largest economy lashes luxury firms.