Hong Kong (AFP) – Equities rallied Monday on hopes that the US government shutdown could be nearing an end after reports said lawmakers had reached a deal to break the record-breaking 40-day impasse. The prospect of a resumption of operations in the world’s biggest economy helped temper lingering worries about extended tech valuations amid talk of an AI bubble following this year’s eye-watering rally. Investors have been growing increasingly concerned about the financial impact of the shutdown, which saw several government services halted and air travel disrupted heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. A University of Michigan survey last week showed a decline in consumer sentiment in November compared with October.
A group of Democrats in the Senate sided with Republicans in a procedural vote on the deal Sunday evening — clearing the way for a formal debate — after reaching a bipartisan agreement to fund operations through January. The Senate will have up to 30 hours to debate before the measure is expected to be passed. Once it clears the Senate, it needs approval from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives before going to President Donald Trump for his signature. The vote came after weeks of wrangling over health care subsidies, food benefits, and Trump’s firings of federal employees. The US president told reporters “it looks like we’re getting close to the shutdown ending.”
Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune said: “After 40 days of uncertainty, I’m profoundly glad to be able to announce that nutrition programmes, our veterans, and other critical priorities will have their full-year funding.” Lawmakers said the deal would restore funding for food stamps, reverse Trump’s firings of thousands of federal workers and assure a vote on extending health care subsidies. “There is a growing sense of urgency to reach a compromise,” wrote National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril. “The economic consequences are mounting: the Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could shave 1.5 percentage (annualised) points off quarterly GDP growth by mid-November.”
Optimism for an end to the standoff helped equities higher in Asia. Tokyo and Hong Kong each rose more than one percent, and Seoul piled on three percent. There were also gains in Shanghai, Sydney, Bangkok, Taipei, Manila, and Wellington, though there were losses in Singapore. London, Paris, and Frankfurt rallied at the open. The reopening would allow officials to resume the release of key economic data, including on the labor market, which is a key gauge for the Federal Reserve as it considers whether to cut interest rates again next month. Traders have been forced to use private data to get an idea about the state of the economy, with a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas last week showing US layoffs hit the highest level in 22 years in October. That boosted talk of another rate cut, though several key members of the central bank have said their main concern is stubbornly elevated inflation, rather than jobs.
Chris Weston at Pepperstone said: “Markets currently price a 67 percent chance of a December rate cut.” However, recent comments from non-voting Fed members (Beth) Hammack and (Lorie) Logan — both suggesting they wouldn’t have supported the October cut — hint at a higher bar for additional easing. “The next wave of Tier 1 data, once government operations resume, will be critical for December expectations.”
Investors also took heart in a further easing of China-US tensions after Beijing on Monday said it would suspend for one year “special port fees” on US vessels “simultaneously” with Washington’s pause on levies targeting Chinese ships. While markets are on the up at the start of the week, sentiment has been dented of late by concerns that stocks are overvalued and doubts over tens of billions of dollars in new artificial intelligence investments.
– Key figures at around 0815 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.3 percent at 50,911.76 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.6 percent at 26,649.06 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 4,018.60 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 9,742.26
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1570 from $1.1563 on Friday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3157 from $1.3160
Dollar/yen: UP at 154.06 yen from 153.46 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 87.94 pence from 87.86 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.8 percent at $60.22 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.7 percent at $64.06 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 0.2 percent at 46,987.10 (close)
© 2024 AFP
