Paris (France) (AFP) – The United States and France have promised to secure oil shipping threatened by the Middle East war, but experts warn that warship availability and Iran’s wide range of weaponry could complicate this situation. US-Israeli attacks on Iran since Saturday and Iran’s fiery response have caused global economic turmoil as shipping avoids the Strait of Hormuz, near Iran, one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes. Around a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf must pass through this chokepoint. While Iran has not officially shut off the Strait of Hormuz, shipping through the waterway has all but dried up.
President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the US Navy was ready to escort oil tankers through the crucial Gulf shipping route to ensure the “FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.” France’s President Emmanuel Macron echoed this sentiment earlier in the day, saying France was building a coalition “to pool the necessary resources, including military ones, so that traffic can be restored and secured” in the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, and Red Sea. However, analyst Dirk Siebels from the consultancy firm Risk Intelligence cautioned that “the practical realities of this potential operation would be very challenging.”
One major obstacle, according to Kais Makhlouf from Risk Intelligence, is that “military assets are busy right now doing military stuff,” which limits the number available to escort oil and LNG tankers. US-Israeli air strikes have targeted Iran, while a US submarine recently torpedoed an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, resulting in the deaths of at least 86 crew members. A European military source, speaking on condition of anonymity, mentioned that Iran still poses a threat to shipping. Iran could deploy missiles, air or underwater drones, midget submarines, or even scatter floating or magnetic mines that detonate in proximity to a ship.
To secure maritime traffic routes, Western nations might consider frigate patrols or escorts for specific ships, potentially with additional air cover. However, if the strait were mined, this would necessitate minehunters preceding convoys or establishing safe corridors before commercial vessels could transit. Excluding any possible mining, the scenario would be similar to that in the Red Sea, where US and European navies have been protecting ships from attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni rebels.
Several sources indicated that any coalition in the Hormuz Strait could mirror the EU operation that has been working alongside the Yemeni navy in the Red Sea since February 2024. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot noted that the aim was to secure the Hormuz Strait in that “same spirit” as the European Union’s Operation ASPIDES naval task force. While wary of direct involvement in the US-Israeli war with Iran, European countries are being drawn in following attacks on Cyprus and Western allies in the Gulf.
France, Greece, and Italy have announced plans to send warships to the eastern Mediterranean, where the Suez Canal provides passage to the Red Sea and further to the Gulf. A French diplomatic source, wishing to remain anonymous, remarked that discussions were ongoing to reinforce the EU ASPIDES operation. “As for Hormuz, we need to see how things develop,” the source added. “The gradual build-up of the European naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean will eventually prove useful if and when conditions are met to move into the Strait of Hormuz,” they concluded.
Alessio Patalano, a professor at King’s College London, emphasized the importance of collaboration. For the Europeans, “it is essential to act as a coalition because very few European navies have the capabilities required to confront these threats like the British, French, or Italian,” he stated.
© 2024 AFP
