Stock markets, dollar steady before US jobs data ~ EconomyLens.com

London (AFP) – Stock markets and the dollar largely steadied Thursday before key US jobs data and as investors kept a close eye on President Donald Trump’s bid to push through a tax-cutting budget. London’s stock market and the pound recovered, having taken a knock Wednesday on rumours that British finance minister Rachel Reeves faced losing her job. Oil prices fell, with OPEC and the cartel’s crude-producing allies expected to announce Sunday a rise to output.

“US stock markets made a fresh record high on Wednesday as we lead up to today’s (non-farm) payrolls report,” noted Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB trading group. “A weak jobs reading for June…could see the market step up rate-cut expectations for the US, which may weigh on the dollar,” she added. Thursday’s report comes one day after a smaller survey showed the US private sector unexpectedly shed jobs last month for the first time since March 2023, suggesting the labour market was slackening in the world’s biggest economy.

Traders widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates twice this year but there is growing speculation that it could make three, with one possibly at the July meeting. Bets on rates coming down — possibly this month but more likely in September or October — are supporting equities. There was a muted response, meanwhile, to a US-Vietnam trade deal. While the pact provided hope that other governments could reach agreements with Washington, dealers were cautious as it emerged that Vietnam must still pay levies of as much as 40 percent for certain exports. The news means Hanoi will avoid paying the 46 percent levies applied on the April 2 tariff blitz, though the cost of goods going into America will still surge. The stock exchanges in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi both dipped Thursday.

With less than a week left until Trump’s July 9 deadline to avoid his “reciprocal” levies, only Britain has signed a deal with the US while China has agreed on a framework that slashed sky-high tit-for-tat levies. Trump has said he will not push back his deadline to make more deals, though he and some of his officials have said a number were in the pipeline. Elsewhere, US Treasury yields rose amid fresh worries in the bond market over Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” that aims to cut taxes and spending on programmes such as Medicaid. Independent analysis suggests the budget will add $3 trillion to the already-colossal US debt mountain, which observers warn could deal a fresh blow to the world’s top economy.

Still, with some Republicans in the House of Representatives holding out over certain features of the bill, there is talk that lawmakers will not be able to get it to Trump’s desk by Friday’s deadline. On the corporate front, France on Thursday announced a record 40 million-euro fine against Chinese e-commerce giant Shein over “deceptive commercial practices.”