Stocks retreat as US GDP slumps rattles confidence ~ EconomyLens.com

London (AFP) – Stocks slid on Wall Street on Wednesday, pulling European indexes off earlier highs after the US economy contracted in the first quarter, heightening fears about the fallout of President Donald Trump’s tariffs blitz on the world’s largest economy. Instead of increasing slightly as analysts expected, US GDP fell 0.3 percent — a stark reversal from the 2.4 percent growth seen in the fourth quarter of last year. In particular, consumer spending slowed to 1.8 percent, while a later report by the Commerce Department showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose 2.3 percent in March, down from 2.7 percent in February but still slightly higher than most analysts expected.

“This puts the Fed in an uncomfortable position: Inflation risks are rising even as growth slows” — a perfect recipe for “stagflation,” said Christopher Boucher, investment director at ABN AMRO Investment Solutions. “This uncertainty is likely to weigh on consumer spending, which has supported the American economy up to now,” he said. The report also bodes ill for US labor market data on Friday, which could reveal a larger-than-expected slowdown in hiring as firms brace for tariff turmoil. “Although the precise extent to which tariffs will dampen growth remains unclear, the prevailing view is that the trajectory will be downward rather than upward,” said Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

European stocks had broadly advanced earlier following data that showed the eurozone economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter, despite the uncertainty over tariffs. But shares in German auto giants Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz slumped after they reported big drops in the first-quarter net profit. Mercedes-Benz and US-European auto giant Stellantis also suspended their annual financial guidance due to uncertainty over Trump’s 25-percent tariffs on car imports, although the US leader softened the levies on Tuesday.

In Asia, data on Wednesday showed that tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China began to bite in April, as Chinese manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace since July 2023. That came after Chinese exports soared more than 12 percent last month as businesses rushed to get ahead of the swingeing tariffs. “Tariffs are a lose-lose proposition, and the PMI data is our first official look at how it’s affecting China. Our take is that there’s a clear negative shock taking place,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

Hong Kong’s stock market advanced, but Shanghai slipped. Tokyo rose, boosted by a 7.1 percent surge in Sony fueled by a report that it is considering spinning off its chip unit — a move investors hope will unlock value in the Japanese entertainment and electronics company. Equities had clawed back much of the losses suffered in early April as Trump has shown more flexibility on some issues and as governments hold talks with Washington. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he had reached a deal with a country but did not name it, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said progress had been made with India, South Korea, and Japan.

Oil prices extended losses on concerns that the trade war will slow growth and reduce demand, and as traders expect a stronger increase in oil production by OPEC+.

– Key figures at 1540 GMT –

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.6 percent at 40,279.72 points

New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.9 percent at 5,510.05

New York – Nasdaq: DOWN 1.4 percent at 17,224.20

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.4 percent at 8,494.85 (close)

Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.5 percent at 7,593.87 (close)

Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.3 percent at 22,496.98 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.6 percent at 36,045.38 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 22,119.41 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,279.03 (close)

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1342 from $1.1390 on Tuesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3338 from $1.3399