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What we know ahead of Jimmy Lai’s national security verdicts

Andrew Murphy by Andrew Murphy
December 14, 2025
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Markets in Japan and South Korea led losses across Asia on Monday. ©AFP

Hong Kong (AFP) – A Hong Kong court will decide on Monday whether pro-democracy media mogul Jimmy Lai is guilty of national security crimes, in a case that has sparked international concern over the city’s political freedoms.

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**What is Lai accused of doing?**

Lai is charged with two counts of conspiracy to foreign collusion under Hong Kong’s national security law, which was imposed by Beijing in 2020 following huge and sometimes violent pro-democracy protests. Offenders could face up to life in prison. Prosecutors said Lai was the mastermind behind two conspiracies to ask foreign countries to impose “sanctions or blockade” or take “hostile activities” against Hong Kong or China. The 78-year-old founder of the Apple Daily newspaper is also charged with one count of “conspiracy to publish seditious publications.” Prosecutors cited 161 items published on various platforms, including op-eds with Lai’s byline, saying they “excited disaffection” against the government. The colonial-era sedition offence carries a maximum penalty of two years in jail for a first offence.

**Where has Lai been?**

Lai was first arrested under the national security law in August 2020, around two months after the law took effect. After spending some weeks on bail, Lai was taken into custody again on December 31, 2020, and has stayed behind bars ever since. Hong Kong’s top court drastically tightened bail rules for national security defendants in 2021, meaning that Lai was stuck in pre-trial custody. His trial was set to begin in late 2022, but Hong Kong authorities sought last-minute intervention from Beijing to bar Lai’s British lawyer Tim Owen. The trial eventually started on December 18, 2023, and spanned around 150 hearing days. Authorities confirmed that Lai was kept in solitary confinement but said this was done at his request. His son Sebastien and daughter Claire recently raised the alarm over the mogul’s health, saying that he had lost weight and had visible decay to his nails and teeth. The Hong Kong government rejected the characterisation and said Lai has received “adequate and comprehensive” medical services behind bars.

**What happened during the trial?**

The trial featured testimony from witnesses, including Lai himself, though much time was devoted to scrutinising articles or viewing talk show footage. Lai was accused of conspiring with Apple Daily’s senior management — six of whom were his co-defendants — to use the news outlet as a platform for requesting sanctions. Prosecutors named dozens of local and overseas political figures, including former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as Lai’s foreign contacts and “agents,” “intermediaries,” or “collaborators.” Additionally, Lai was alleged to be the mastermind and backer of the protest group “Stand With Hong Kong, Fight for Freedom” (SWHK), which conducted international lobbying. Lai hit back during his testimony that he “never” tried to influence foreign policy on Hong Kong and China via his overseas contacts. The mogul gave his answers quickly and confidently, often jumping in before lawyers had finished asking their questions. He drew rebukes from the three-judge panel when he described himself as a “political prisoner.” Lai told the court that his predictions about the national security law — that it would curb liberties in Hong Kong — had “come to pass.”

**What happens after the verdict?**

On Monday morning, High Court judges Esther Toh, Alex Lee, and Susana D’Almada Remedios will decide if Lai is guilty or not guilty of each of the three charges. The verdicts concerning Lai, a British citizen, are set to be a bone of contention between Beijing and Western nations such as Britain and the United States. Once a person is found guilty of a crime at the High Court, judges typically determine the sentence at a later date after hearing further legal arguments. The court has the authority to order medical reports as part of its sentencing process. If found guilty and sentenced, Lai can appeal the outcome.

© 2024 AFP

Tags: freedom of speechHong Kongnational security
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