London (AFP) – Precious and industrial metals are surging to record highs as the year ends, driven by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, robust industrial demand, and, in some cases, tight supply. Below, AFP examines the reasons for the surge in demand.
– Safe havens – Gold and silver are traditionally seen as safe-haven assets, and demand has soared amid mounting geopolitical tensions, from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs onslaught to wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as recent pressure by Washington on Caracas. Investors are also uneasy about rising public debt in major economies and the risk of a bubble in the artificial intelligence sector. These uncertainties are driving up gold and silver, with other metals now starting to see the impact as investors seek to diversify their portfolios, explained John Plassard, an analyst at Cite Gestion Private Bank. “Metal is once again becoming insurance rather than just a speculative asset,” he told AFP.
– A weak dollar – Traditional safe havens like the dollar and US Treasuries have become less attractive this year. Uncertainty around Trump’s presidency and the prospect of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have weakened the dollar, reducing its appeal to investors. As a result, many investors are turning to gold and silver. Gold has climbed more than 70 percent this year and passed $4,500 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday, while silver reached a record high of $72 an ounce, with prices up about 2.5 times since January. A weak dollar is also boosting industrial metals, since commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for buyers when the currency falls.
– Fresh demand – Industrial demand has surged in recent months, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence and the energy transition. Copper, used for solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries, and data centres, has seen strong gains as a result. Prices hit a record on Wednesday, topping $12,000 a ton, helped further by China, the world’s largest copper consumer, announcing new measures to boost demand. Aluminium, a cheaper alternative to copper, and silver are also benefiting from the AI boom and the shift to renewable energy. Platinum and palladium, used in car catalytic converters, have also risen, reaching a record high and a three-year high respectively, after the European Union decided to allow sales of new internal combustion vehicles beyond 2035.
– Tight supply – Copper prices have been lifted this year by fears of US tariffs, prompting companies to stockpile ahead of their introduction, with duties imposed on semi-finished products and potentially extending to refined copper. Supply risks from disruptions at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia have added to the price surge. Physical markets for silver, platinum, and aluminium are also tight. According to Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, thin holiday trading, which increases volatility, and investor fear of missing out have further amplified the rise at the end of the year.
© 2024 AFP
