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Middle East war: global economic fallout

Andrew Murphy by Andrew Murphy
April 12, 2026
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Oil prices have moved up and down since the conflict started but remain well up on their pre-war level of around $60 a barrel. ©AFP

Paris (France) (AFP) – Here are the latest economic events in the Middle East war:

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– **US inflation surges**

Inflation in the United States rose sharply in March, government data showed, as higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East hit Americans hard. Prices rose 3.3 percent year-on-year in March, much faster than the 2.4 percent registered in February. Gasoline prices alone surged 21.2 percent between February and March—the largest monthly increase since the government began publishing a related index in 1967.

– **Stocks rise, oil steady**

Stocks rose and oil was steady as investors remained guardedly optimistic about the US-Iran ceasefire ahead of planned weekend talks. European indices were up about half a percent in late afternoon trading, with prices on Wall Street also up but by not as much. Brent and West Texas Intermediate were hovering under $100 a barrel.

– **Lebanon faces food shortages**

The United Nations warned Friday that food insecurity was on the rise in Lebanon, with prices surging and supply chains disrupted as Israel has continued military strikes on the country. The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) said the entire food system in Lebanon was reeling from the conflict, with Israel launching its heaviest strikes on the country this week.

– **Total refinery shut**

French energy giant TotalEnergies said it had shut down a major refinery in Saudi Arabia after it was damaged during the war. The Saudi energy ministry said there had been “multiple attacks” recently on its oil and gas sites, including the SATORP refinery, a joint venture of TotalEnergies and the Saudi state-owned Aramco group. No details on production impacts, nor the type of attack, were disclosed.

– **EU considers windfall tax**

The EU said it was looking into calls for a tax on windfall profits of energy companies to respond to the surge in prices caused by the Iran war. The finance ministers of Spain, Austria, Germany, Italy, and Portugal urged Brussels to take the measure to ease the burden on consumers in a letter published last week.

– **Ireland to meet farmers**

The Irish government was set to hold talks Friday with agricultural and haulage representatives, as days of protests over spiraling fuel prices sparked warnings over supplies, including for emergency services. The demonstrations began Tuesday over the soaring cost of petrol and diesel amid the Middle East war, with protesters partly blocking Ireland’s only oil refinery and restricting access to at least two other fuel depots.

– **IMF warns of ‘scarring effects’**

The International Monetary Fund will lower global growth forecasts because of the war, said managing director Kristalina Georgieva, warning of the conflict’s “scarring effects” despite the fragile ceasefire. Georgieva said the IMF expected to have to provide up to $50 billion in immediate financial assistance to countries affected by the war. She added that food insecurity because of transport and supply chain disruptions caused by the war was expected to affect at least 45 million people and “even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return” to the way things were before the conflict.

© 2024 AFP

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