Beijing (AFP) – China’s factory activity shrank this month, official data showed Wednesday, with Beijing blaming a “sharp shift” in the global economy as it fights a mounting trade war with the United States. Punishing US tariffs that have reached 145 percent on many Chinese products came into force in April, while Beijing has responded with fresh 125 percent duties on imports from the United States.
And the impact of the measures began to show through in April, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index — a key measure of industrial output — falling to 49 in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), below the 50-point mark that separates growth and contraction. The reading for April was down from March’s 50.5, which was the highest in 12 months, and represented a steeper decline than the 49.7 forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
“In April, affected by factors such as a high base from earlier rapid manufacturing growth and a sharp shift in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI fell,” NBS statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement. The non-manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in the services sector, came in at 50.4, down from 50.8 in March.
Economists have warned that the disruption in trade between the tightly integrated US and Chinese economies could threaten businesses, increase prices for consumers, and cause a global recession. Chinese exports soared more than 12 percent last month as businesses rushed to get ahead of the swingeing tariffs.
“The weak manufacturing PMI in April is driven by the trade war,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, wrote in a note. “The macro data in China and the US will weaken further…as the trade policy uncertainty delays business decisions,” he added.
China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, has struggled to fully recover since the Covid-19 pandemic and is also grappling with sluggish domestic demand and a protracted property sector crisis. “China’s economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools,” said Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.
“Although the government is stepping up fiscal support, this is unlikely to fully offset the drag, and we expect the economy to expand just 3.5 percent this year,” Huang added. Authorities last year announced a slew of aggressive stimulus measures aimed at boosting growth, including rate cuts and the easing of some home purchasing restrictions.
And in March, leaders at a key political meeting vowed to create 12 million new urban jobs in 2025. They also said they would aim for growth this year of five percent — the same as 2024 and a goal considered ambitious by many economists.
© 2024 AFP
