Washington (AFP) – The war in Sudan is likely to cause heavy economic damage in neighboring countries, the IMF’s deputy director for Africa, Catherine Pattillo, told AFP. “What is going on there for the people in Sudan is just so heart wrenching and devastating. For all of the neighboring countries too,” she said in an interview in Washington ahead of the publication on Friday of the International Monetary Fund’s regional outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
“A number of these countries that are neighbors are also fragile countries with their own challenges,” she said. “And then to be confronted with the refugees, the security issues, the trade issues, is very challenging for their growth,” she added. The IMF’s report predicted that the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and South Sudan could be particularly hard hit by the ongoing conflict in Sudan.
For South Sudan, the situation has become particularly worrying following the loss in February of one of its main sources of income after an oil export pipeline was damaged in Sudan. The pipeline is crucial for transporting South Sudanese crude oil abroad, which is especially important given that oil accounts for around 90 percent of the landlocked country’s exports.
The war in Sudan has been raging since April 2023 between the army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is also known as Hemedti. The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives, according to the UN. More than 10.7 million people have been displaced across the country, and a further 2.3 million have fled to neighboring countries. The conflict has also exacerbated food insecurity; a famine was declared in July in the Zamzam camp for displaced people near the town of el-Facher, in Darfur.
“You could think of Sudan (and) also some of the security issues in the Sahelian countries, also affecting growth,” Pattillo said. “Those are the internal conflicts.” At the same time, other “external conflicts” like the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are also impacting things like food prices, fertilizer, and energy costs, she added.
The IMF notes that growing protectionism is also having a negative impact on growth in Africa, at a time when trade tensions are translating into tariff hikes between the world’s three most powerful trading blocs: The United States, Europe, and China. The economic slowdown in developed countries and China still represents a major challenge for African countries, the IMF noted, predicting growth in Sub-Saharan Africa of 4.2 percent next year. This is slightly better than the 3.6 percent growth expected this year.
© 2024 AFP
