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Middle East war: global economic fallout

Andrew Murphy by Andrew Murphy
March 25, 2026
in Economy
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Soaring black market prices of cooking gas in India's capital are pushing poorer families back to wood and coal. ©AFP

Paris (France) (AFP) – Here are the latest economic events in the Middle East war:

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**Vietnam diesel prices surge**

The price of diesel in Vietnam has more than doubled since the start of the Middle East war, according to figures released by the country’s trade ministry. Vietnam has recently asked for fuel support from several countries, including Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria, and Japan, and on Monday signed a deal with Russia on oil and gas production in both countries.

**Oil drops on hope of de-escalation**

Crude oil prices tumbled in early Wednesday trading on hopes of de-escalation after US President Donald Trump voiced optimism about ending the nearly month-old war. After rising in Europe and the United States on Tuesday, Brent crude was down 6.3 percent at $97.90 a barrel, and the contract, West Texas Intermediate, was down 5.2 percent at $87.52. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf has roiled energy and financial markets, with oil prices up around 40 percent since the start of the fighting.

**’Non-hostile vessels’ in Hormuz?**

Iran has said “non-hostile vessels” can transit the Strait of Hormuz if they meet safety and security regulations in coordination with the relevant authorities, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) said Tuesday. In a statement, Iran insisted that “vessels, equipment and any assets belonging to the aggressor parties — namely the United States and the Israeli regime — as well as other participants in the aggression do not qualify for innocent or non-hostile passage.”

**Suspect betting**

Thousands of oil contracts — a far higher volume than normal — were traded 15 minutes before Trump pledged to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, sending prices tumbling, data showed Tuesday. Bloomberg estimated the value of oil contracts that changed hands between 1049 and 1050 GMT was $650 million, with people who bet on prices dropping ahead of Trump’s announcement potentially pocketing millions. No evidence of insider trading has so far been established.

**Strike near Iran nuclear plant**

The UN nuclear watchdog said Iran informed it that “another projectile hit the premises” of the Bushehr nuclear power plant on Tuesday, without damaging the plant itself. “IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reiterates call for maximum restraint to avoid nuclear safety risks during conflict,” the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.

**Philippines declares ‘energy emergency’**

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos declared a state of “national energy emergency,” citing risks to the domestic fuel supply. The state of emergency was declared hours after the country’s energy secretary said the Philippines planned to boost the output of its coal-fired power plants to keep electricity costs down as the war wreaks havoc with gas shipments.

**Sri Lanka switches off lights**

Sri Lanka ordered street lights, neon signs, and billboard lighting to be switched off as part of measures to cut energy consumption by 25 percent and tackle supply shortages. Government spokesman Nalinda Jayatissa said all state institutions had been asked to reduce the use of air conditioning. Sri Lanka has already raised fuel prices by a third, and last week, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake urged electric car owners to avoid overnight charging.

**Economic activity slows**

Business activity in the eurozone and the United States slowed in March as the war in the Middle East drove energy prices higher and disrupted global supply chains, surveys showed. The HCOB Flash Eurozone purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published by S&P Global fell to 50.5 from 51.9 in February. A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a figure below 50 shows contraction. “The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Meanwhile, the initial reading for the S&P composite US PMI dipped to an 11-month low of 51.4 points in March from 51.9 points in February.

**France cuts growth outlook**

France’s INSEE statistics agency trimmed its growth forecast for the first and second quarters of this year to 0.2 percent as the country’s economy is “struck by global turmoil.”

**Bangladesh hikes jet fuel costs**

Bangladesh raised jet fuel prices by 79 percent as costs surge in the wake of the war. The order by the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, the second this month, means jet fuel prices have surged by 111 percent since the start of the war.

**Ireland cuts fuel taxes**

Ireland slashed the excise duty on petrol and diesel in a bid to stem surging prices at filling stations. Excise duty on diesel will fall by 20 euro cents a litre and by 15 cents a litre on petrol until the end of May, said Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin.

© 2024 AFP

Tags: energy crisisMiddle Eastoil prices
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