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Oil prices fall on cautious hopes for US-Iran progress

Emma Reilly by Emma Reilly
September 25, 2026
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Japan's 10-year yield reached a fresh 30-year high in morning trade on Friday. ©AFP

London (AFP) – Oil prices retreated Friday on reports of potential overtures to ending the US-Iran war, which helped support stock prices after a volatile week as investors tracked geopolitical tensions. Wall Street indices opened higher following slight gains in Europe and a mixed performance in Asia, against a backdrop of rising government bond yields and persistent inflation fears.

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After falling sharply on hopes of a breakthrough to end the Middle East war during the UN General Assembly in New York this week, oil prices jumped when there was no sign of tangible progress. However, they fell back Friday after Iran’s foreign minister said it had submitted an offer to Washington that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic within seven days. “If certain conditions are met, the strait will be open within seven days and talks will start,” Abbas Araghchi told media outlets on the sidelines of the UN gathering.

“It is a dubious offer considering Iran hasn’t changed its conditions from before,” said Patrick O’Hare, an analyst at Briefing.com. “We’ll see how long the glow of Iran’s offer lasts.” Inflation fears from the Strait of Hormuz closure, alongside the risk of further Gulf supply cuts due to Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure on the Red Sea, have again pushed up government bond yields, with investors demanding higher returns for lending money. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 on Thursday, and Japan’s government bond yields also hit multi-year highs.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey hinted meanwhile that it could also follow the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve in hiking interest rates in the coming months, which could curtail inflation but slow economic growth. As for equities, “a seemingly amicable meeting” between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Washington helped lift investor sentiment, said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. However, the nations’ extension of a trade truce by two months until January was far less than the two years the Chinese had hoped for.

“US-China trade risks remain…(with) issues over tariffs, agricultural purchases, rare earths, and technology restrictions unresolved,” said MUFG market strategist Lloyd Chan.

– Key figures at around 1345 GMT –

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.1 percent at $105.41 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.2 percent at $93.39 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 0.4 percent at 51,547.88 points

New York – S&P 500: UP 0.3 percent at 7,726.11

New York – Nasdaq: UP 0.4 percent at 27,043.85

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 10,685.61

Paris – CAC 40: FLAT at 8,083.20

Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.6 percent at 25,425.15

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.3 percent at 66,364.20 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.0 percent at 24,510.09 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: closed for holiday

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1403 from $1.1376 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3256 from $1.3220

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.02 pence from 86.07

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 157.08 from 158.85

© 2024 AFP

Tags: geopoliticsinflationoil prices
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