Washington (United States) (AFP) – The United States added fewer jobs than expected in December, government data showed Friday, capping the labor market’s weakest year since the Covid-19 pandemic amid growing concerns about hiring. US employment rose by 50,000 last month, slowing from a revised 56,000 in November, the Department of Labor said. The jobless rate — measured by a different survey within the report — inched down to 4.4 percent from 4.5 percent. For 2025, payroll employment grew by 584,000, significantly lower than the increase of 2.0 million in 2024.
Investors will be digesting the data for its potential bearing on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, as a sharp deterioration in the jobs market could nudge the US central bank to lower rates sooner to boost the world’s biggest economy. While December’s figures were decent, job growth has slowed significantly over the past year while the unemployment rate crept up towards its highest level since 2021. Economist Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics told AFP that the United States is seeing slower labor force growth, with less immigration while the native population ages, alongside tepid demand with businesses hesitant to hire. This is partially due to stronger productivity but also business uncertainty as firms grapple with President Donald Trump’s fast-changing tariff policies.
“We’re in a new normal, in a new equilibrium,” said Sweet, adding that this is roughly the level of job growth one should expect going forward. Friday’s hiring number was lower than the 73,000 figure expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. Among sectors, employment continued trending up in restaurants and bars, health care and social assistance, the Labor Department said. But retail trade lost jobs, with employment dropping in areas like warehouse clubs, supercenters and other merchandise retailers. “Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent,” the department said.
– ‘Warning lights’ – In a CNBC interview, White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett pointed to US productivity as an encouraging sign beyond job creation. But “job growth in 2025 was the weakest in over a decade, outside of the pandemic,” Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement. Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long added that 2025 marked the worst year for job gains outside of a recession since 2003.
While the overall report appears positive at first glance, Northlight Asset Management’s chief investment officer Chris Zaccarelli expects skeptics to point out the “very meager increase of 50,000 in jobs.” “In essence, we are seeing validation of the idea that job creation is very weak and companies have been letting workers go at a slow pace,” he said in a note. “There aren’t any red flashing lights indicating an imminent recession, but there are plenty of yellow warning lights flashing and there is the risk that we could approach stall speed.”
– Fed easing ahead – On Friday, the Trump administration also acknowledged that it inadvertently published some hiring data on social media a night before the full jobs report was due to be released Friday. “Following the regular procedure of presidents being prebriefed on economic data releases, there was an inadvertent public disclosure of aggregate data that was partially derived from pre-released information,” a White House official said. “The White House is accordingly reviewing protocols regarding economic data releases,” the official added.
For now, economist Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics expects December’s figures are “weak enough” to keep a further interest rate reduction by the Fed in the cards. The sluggish job growth figure was underpinned by a mere 37,000 increase in private payrolls, he said. While the unemployment rate crept down, analysts have noted that this was no surprise as it could have resulted from an earlier pick-up in layoffs linked to a lengthy government shutdown. “For many businesses, uncertainty about federal government policy and the impact of AI warrants an extended pause on new hiring. Accordingly, we look for only a small pick-up in employment growth ahead,” Tombs said.
© 2024 AFP
