Paris (France) (AFP) – Coal-fired power generation is set to increase in 2026, driven by supply difficulties and soaring natural gas prices linked to the war in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency said Thursday. The conflict in the Middle East, pitting the United States against Iran, has led since March 2026 to regular blockages of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits, pushing some economies back toward coal.
As a result, “global coal-fired generation is expected to increase by 1.4 percent in 2026, after remaining roughly constant in 2025,” the IEA wrote in a new report. The increased use of coal-fired power plants is also explained by a surge in energy prices in 2026. Up 30 percent compared with the first half of 2025, they are “at their highest level since the energy crisis of 2022 and 2023,” which was triggered by the war in Ukraine, the IEA said. Consequently, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation are expected to rise by one percent in 2026, with large regional disparities, the agency wrote.
Southeast Asia is expected to see its emissions grow by six percent, while the European Union should record a five-percent decline. CO2 emissions should, however, stabilise in 2027, thanks to the growth of renewable electricity generation, which is “overtaking coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation, after reaching near parity in 2025,” the report said. Renewable supply is expected to increase by eight percent in 2026, and its share in global electricity supply should rise from 33 percent in 2025 to 37 percent in 2027.
The sector is being driven by solar power, whose generation is expected to surpass that of wind in 2026 and thus “become the world’s second-largest source of renewable electricity generation after hydropower,” the IEA wrote. Overall, demand for electricity is “forecast to stay on a solid upward trajectory,” driven in particular by industry, electric vehicles, and data centres, the IEA said. It forecast demand growth of 3.6 percent in 2026 and 3.8 percent in 2027, compared with a three-percent increase in 2025.
Finally, the El Nino event, a natural climate fluctuation that warms temperatures and leads to changes in wind patterns, is proving stronger than expected this year. This weather phenomenon “could affect electricity demand” by increasing cooling needs and limiting hydropower and wind power generation, the IEA said.
© 2024 AFP
