Hong Kong (AFP) – Mainland Chinese markets rallied Tuesday but were well off their morning highs, while Hong Kong tumbled as traders were left disappointed by a lack of detail on Beijing’s raft of economic stimulus announced last month. Shanghai and Shenzhen started the day on a blistering note — piling on more than 10 percent — as they reopened after a week-long holiday that had interrupted a rally sparked by a string of announcements by policymakers aimed at kickstarting growth.
But investors pared those gains as a much-anticipated news conference Tuesday morning — in which there were hopes for more meat on the plans or another round of pledges — failed to provide much detail. Zheng Shanjie, head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said the government was “fully confident” it will achieve its goal of around five percent growth this year — a target analysts say is optimistic. That gave traders little reason to press on with a market rally that has seen Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen bound more than 20 percent higher since the first batch of measures were announced.
By the break, Shanghai was up just 4.8 percent and Shenzhen 7.7 percent, while Hong Kong tanked more than five percent. Oil, which has been boosted by hopes for a recovery in the world’s number two economy, sank more than one percent. Uncertainty over China has offset worries about a regional war in the Middle East as Israel considers its response to Iran’s missile attack last week.
“After what was hyped as the ‘mother of all catch-up bounces’, China’s markets rally has hit a wall, leaving investors deflated,” said independent analyst Stephen Innes. “The reopening surge from the week-long holiday barely had time to gather steam before fizzling out, and now the once-thrilled bulls are licking their wounds,” he wrote in his Dark Side of the Boom newsletter. “With fresh stimulus nowhere in sight, the rally has stalled, and the euphoric ‘Dragon Boat’ ride has taken a sharp U-turn.”
Investors have been racing back into mainland and Hong Kong stocks since authorities last month began announcing plans to reverse a long period of tepid economic growth. Among the measures unveiled were interest rate cuts, an easing of how much banks must keep in reserve, and relaxed rules on buying a home. The markets have been under intense pressure in recent years as traders fretted over government crackdowns on multiple sectors, with property and tech among those most badly affected.
Most of the pledges were aimed at providing much-needed support to the real estate market, which is a major driver of growth but has been battered by a debt crisis at some of the country’s biggest developers. Heron Lim, at Moody’s Analytics, said: “Judging from comments in the press conference, we think that the third quarter will be soft for China but there’s enough in the stimulus announced so far to boost fourth-quarter figures enough to reach the annual 2024 growth target.” Market hopes of even more fiscal stimulus that reaches the ‘big bang bazooka’ level look dashed…with few details on specific measures.
The big losses in Hong Kong led the rest of Asia lower with Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington, Manila, and Mumbai all in the red. The selling also came after Wall Street’s three main indexes closed down around one percent or more as forecast-busting US jobs data Friday dealt a blow to hopes for a second successive 50-basis-point rate cut. While the news soothed any worries that the economy could be in danger of slipping into recession, the prospect of borrowing costs coming down slower than thought led to some investors cashing out after last week’s record highs. Close attention will be paid to US consumer prices Thursday and producer prices the following day.
– Key figures around 0400 GMT –
Shanghai – Composite: UP 4.8 percent at 3,496.82 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 5.6 percent at 21,810.00 (break)
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 38,897.04
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.5 percent at $76.00 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.4 percent at $79.78 per barrel
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 147.94 from 148.13 yen on Monday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3095 from $1.3084
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0985 from $1.0973
Euro/pound: UP at 83.89 pence from 83.86 pence
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.9 percent at 41,954.24 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 8,303.62 (close)
© 2024 AFP
