Addis Ababa (AFP) – The Middle East war “presents a serious risk to Africa,” the African Union and the African Development Bank (AfDB) said in a report seen by AFP Saturday. The conflict threatens to increase the cost of living and curtail growth on the continent, the report warned. The Middle East accounts for 15.8 percent of Africa’s imports and 10.9 percent of its exports, the report noted.
“The conflict, which already has triggered a trade shock, could quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions,” it added. The growth rate of most African countries continues to be slower than before the Covid pandemic, it noted. “A loss in output growth of 0.2 percentage points on Africa’s GDP is projected for 2026 if it (the conflict) exceeds six months,” it said.
“The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent.” Reduced deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf will impact fertilizer production, limiting its availability during the crucial planting period up to May, it added.
– Currencies hit – The report was compiled by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). According to recent data from the AfDB, the currencies of 29 African countries have already depreciated, increasing the cost of servicing external debt, making imports more expensive and reducing foreign exchange reserves.
Some countries could see some short-term gains, such as Nigeria for its oil exports or Mozambique for its LNG. The rerouting of ships around Cape of Good Hope could benefit ports in Mozambique, South Africa, Namibia and Mauritius. Kenya is establishing itself as a logistics hub in East Africa, while Ethiopian Airlines, the leading carrier in Africa, is serving as an “emergency air bridge” between the continent, Asia, and Europe, the report noted.
But these gains are likely to be uneven and will not offset the consequences for inflation, budgets, and food security in Africa, they warned. Above all, the current crisis could hit the costs of humanitarian aid and divert donor funds towards other priorities.
© 2024 AFP
